Saturday, 22 November 2014

SPEL Semiconductor Ltd. - the rising Sun !!

 


  • SPEL Semiconductor Limited is India’s first & only Semiconductor IC Assembly & Test facility.
  • SPEL pioneered the Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly & Test Services (OSAT) market in India.
  • It's Parent company is Natronix Semiconductor Technology, a Singapore Headquartered Co.
  • Natronix holds over 55% stake in SPEL.
  • In simple terms, OSAT means a contract manufacturing partner which manufactures integrated circuits (ICs), tests and delivers to varied customers from different fields like Communication, Consumer Electronics and Computing.
  • The 'Make in India' campaign of Govt. calls for indigenous manufacture of Mobiles and other Consumer Electronics items, there by reducing overdependance on Chinesen products.
  • SPEL being the only OSAT fascility in India, stands poised to get the first mover advantage.
  • Company's Operating Profit Margin has grown over 20% in last quarter and the company is slowly gaining momentum and turning around.
  • DIGITAL INDIA strategy also complements the company growth.
  • SPEL management is quite decent, stable and experienced. The track record of the management is Clean.
  • The ultra advanced assy. line is at Maraimalai Nagar near Chennai.
  • The customers of the company are some of the very Big names of Silicon valley.
  • The company is listed on BSE and is trading at Rs.16 per share.
With these positives, one can certainly look for SPEL a multibagger in near terms.

Kindly refer link for more info. http://www.natronix.net/spel.htm
 

  

Saturday, 15 November 2014

PHILLIPS CARBON BLACK LTD - There's a bit of black in everything you see


  • PHILLIPS CARBON BLACK LTD. (PCBL), is part of the business conglomerate RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group, which is @ Rs.140 billion revenue.
  • Carbon Black business contributes 19% of its annual sales revenue.
  • PCBL is the largest producer of Carbon Black in India and 7th largest in the World.
  • PCBL is the largest supplier to almost all the TYRE manufacturers in India & World.
  • Carbon Black is exported to 20 countries across globe and the revenue from export of Carbon Black is @35% of the total sales of PCBL. 
  • Carbon Black is mainly used for reinforcing strength to the rubber and used in the manufacture of TYRES and Other Rubber products that are used in the industry. It is available in different grades depending on the type of Application.
  • Apart from the Tyre application, it is also required for the manufacture of INK, Printer Cartridges, Fabrics and many more applications that are used in daily life.
  • With the economic revival & Auto industry gaining momentum, PCBL is projected to give very good results in the coming 2-3 years. The same is visible now from Q2 FY 15 results.
  • The company has considerably high Debt on account of its investment towards Forward & Backward integration and also, the the company has clocked loss before last 3 Quarters. But, since the last 3 quarters, turn around has started.

 List of the customers is shown at the end of this Blog.
  • PCBL integrates high value creating business model that encompases Co-generation Power Plants that run on the tail gas formed during production of Carbon Black. The plant capacities along with the Power output is as below.
  • Revenue from the power generation from Captive power plants is 6% of the total annual income of PCBL.
  •  To enhance the efficiency & profitability of the business, company is now going for backward integration & extension to Carbo Chenical business that produces the raw material required for production of Carbon Black.
  • The company is trading of BSE & NSE with CMP - @ Rs.116 per share. Investors with a bit high patience will get very good returns from this stock in coming 2-3 Quarters.
 

for further details pls. refer - http://www.pcblltd.com/home/home.php?container=1

Monday, 3 November 2014

SKM EGG PRODUCTS LTD. - UPDATE







SKM EGG PRODUCTS - recommended on Muhurat Trading Day @ Rs.60 and the same is currently trading around Rs.85. I know,  many of my readers were eagerly waiting for company's September quarter results and the company keeps our faith by reporting good set of numbers. For the six months ended September , SKM reported the following figures :



I strongly believe that the  company is one step closer to achieving  its targets.  Japanese central bank's surprise decision to continue aggressive stimulus program is expected to help for an early recovery of Japanese economy. Any improvement of Japanese economy will augur well for SKM which is the most important market for the company. The main points to note in this result is the growth in top-line  even during this not so good situation in  its export markets and sharp reduction in  finance cost. Reduction in interest charges clearly indicating company's ongoing efforts to become a debt free company in next few years.Company already surpassed its last full year profit figures in this six months itself. Under the  trusted and hardworking promoters and  management , I hope company will achieve greater heights in the years to come.

In my opinion , for a disciplined investor with enough patience ,  still there is chance  for decent gain from this stock in long term.

KAMADGIRI FASHION LTD. - UPDATE

KAMADGIRI FASHION LTD. suggested on 26 Jun 2014 at Rs.26 is now trading at @ Rs.55.
Refer the link of past recommendation - http://goldenshares-gs.blogspot.in/2014/06/kamadgiri-fashion-ltd-buy.html

Also see the last line mentioned in my blog... what a coincidence. !!

Investors with High risk apetite can still hold the stock, while others can book profit now. 

FRESHTROP FRUITS LTD. - UPDATE

Freshtrop Fruits Ltd, recommended on 17th Oct-2014 at Rs.59 is now trading at Rs.91.
Still lot of steam remains in this stock.
Suggesting to HOLD further.
Refer link of past recommendation http://goldenshares-gs.blogspot.in/2014/10/freshtrop-fruits-ltd-buy-for-healthy.html

Friday, 31 October 2014

CUPID LTD. - BUY and be 'SAFE'



Today I am going to suggest you a stock which is from a very niche segment of Personal products industry.
The company name is CUPID LTD. and listed only on BSE at CMP of Rs.58.

Brief introduction of company-
CUPID LTD. manufactures Male & Female condoms of different varieties, flavours and colours and are sold under different brand names.

CUPID is the only company from India which manufactures FEMALE CONDOMS and also among very few companies in the world to have certifications to sell this product.
CUPID Ltd. has a well equipped R&D center located alongside to its main production facility and is actively involved in research related to HIV/AIDS prevention technology like female condoms

The company was founded in 1993 in collaboration with GREEN MATE BIOTECH CORP. and HERO CORP., both from South Korea. The company has its registered office at Mumbai and State of the art manufacturing facility at MIDC Sinnar, Nashik (@ 200 km from Mumbai).



This modern facility has a current capacity of 400 million pieces of Male condoms and 15 million pieces of recently developed Female condoms per annum.

Unique selling proposition-

1) For selling these kind of products, any company has to comply highly stringent international quality standards and obtain certifications meeting those standards across different countries. Thus there are reasonably high entry barriers in this industry. Rather, this is the first step for start of sales.
CUPID has obtained all those credentials and is a market leader. Recently the company is pre-qualified by WHO/UNFPA for supply of Male / Female condoms.

2) Female condom is a new invention and is gaining wide acceptability across world specifically the African & European countries. Govt. of India and CSIR have also given their nod for use of Female condoms. CUPID has captured the international markets with over 70% of its revenues coming from exports. While, it is all set to gain an early mover advantage in India.

3) Developing countries like China, India, Brazil and S.A. are drastically increasing their spends on Healthcare and Family planning. This gives a policy boost to this sector.



Financials-
The oreder pipeline of this company for the year 2015-16 is quite impressive. It has received order for supply of WHO/UNFPA pre-qualified Male condoms from UN population fund, Denmark. The total value of the order is USD 0.97 Million equivalent to Indial Rs. 5.87 Cr approx. This order is expected to complete by Feb 2015.

The company, also has orders on hand of over Rs. 7 Cr. for supply of Female condoms to its customers in South Africa. This is in addition to the existing orders.

With a robust order pipeline, the sales figures for the current year are expected to achieve decent double digit figures. 
On the back of this, sharp fall in the rubber (raw material) prices will certainly boost company margines.
Company has significantly reduced its debt over the last 4 years from Rs.7 Cr to 2 Cr. 
Quarterly Results

Q2 FY15
(Jul-Sep 2014)
Q2 FY14
(Jul-Sep 2013)
Sales10.113.92
OPM2.93-0.16
NP1.72-0.65
Annual ResultsRs. Cr
Mar-14Mar-13Mar-12Mar-11
Sales31.8428.425.9819.11
OPM8.32.892.642.59
NP5.280.860.590.39


Future growth plans-
Anticipating demand for Female condoms, the company is undergoing expansion. It has infrastructure in place to expand production capacity to 700 million condoms per year.

Management & Promotor shareholding:
CUPID's chairman Mr. Om Garg is a US based NRI having over 30 years of professional experience in this industry. He is also a member of an ISO Technical committee which deals with the Standardisation of non-systemic contraceptives and sexually transmitted infections (STI) barrier prophilatics.

The Promotors have increased their share since last 4-5 years and the current holding stands at 48%.

Conclusion-

- Very high growth potential of this industry and this niche segment in particular, will surely propel CUPID's long term growth prospects.
Having reasonably high entry barrier will help CUPID
- Strong order pipeline from International agencies & Governments will further improve the performance of the company
- Company management's focus on reducing debt
- Drop in raw material prices are helping improve upon margins.

With all these factors, the company is surely going to be a multibagger in medium to long term.

 Please refer company website for further details - http://www.cupidltd.com/index.php




Wednesday, 22 October 2014

GTS -7 ANSWER ----- SKM EGG PRODUCTS EXPORT (INDIA) LTD

GTS -7 ANSWER ----- SKM EGG PRODUCTS EXPORT (INDIA) LTD
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Dear Friends 

My Sincere thanks for your overwhelming response to this learning experience.I strongly believe , those who failed to find out the answer even after spending many hours learned more lessons than  those find out the answer through short cuts like social media sharing...etc.Such experience will be an added advantage in your wealth creation journey going forward.Once again urging my readers to avoid taking investment decisions based only on the name tag of companies I am posting here but only after detailed study and homework 

Wishing a Happy Diwali to all my readers and your families ...........

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If we strictly track the history of any stock which turned as a multi-bagger, there will be at least one niche element in it. Sometimes it may be the product/service itself, and in some other cases it may be its brand ,technology , market or something like that  .If the number of listed stocks from a particular industry is very limited and there is a boom period for that  business , normally the listed market leader  will turn as a multi-bagger, if it is backed by a management which is able to utilise the emerging business opportunities.One very good example for this fact is the recent appreciation in Avanti Feeds Ltd. ,the stock  I  recommended  about three years back @ just Rs.68 and  currently trading above Rs.1525 ( Recommendation Link HERE , Just pointed as an example and not a guarantee for similar performance in all other cases). This week let us look into another really interesting unknown niche stock – SKM Egg Products Exports Ltd.

SKM EGG PRODUCTS EXPORTS  - A CLOSE LOOK

This company is jointly promoted by well known SKM group and Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation Limited(TIDCO) .Out of the Rs.26 Crore equity , TIDCO holding about 7.58 % and Individuals from promoter group holding another  46 % stake.( This data is based on June quarter share holding and promoters made lot of market purchases in June-September period) .Belgium based Belovo Engineering holding another  5 % stake in SKM .Belovo Engineering is part of BNLfood Group which supplying  Egg Science & Technology ,producing and marketing eggs, egg derived nutraceutical ingredients and food ingredients. Plant of SKM itself established with the technical support and collaboration of BOLOVO.Company’s manufacturing facility is located at Cholangapalayam  , about 20 Km from Erode in Tamilnadu .This is one of the largest Egg processing facility in Asia and this state-of the art facility is located in a 35 Acre plot. Under stringent quality conditions , company processing around 18 lakhs eggs per day and manufacturing Whole egg powder, Albumen powder ( Powder form of Egg White), Yolk Powder(Yellow) and recently introduced liquid Eggs.These products are supplied mainly to Japanese and European companies for manufacturing products like cakes, biscuits , cookies, Confectionery products, Health foods, Soup mixes, Ice creams , dairy products ..etc. SKM established direct Subsidiary/marketing points in its major markets viz- Netherlands,Japan and Russia.Selling to other markets channelized through  third party distributors.Since the number of producers are less and India’s cost effective and competitive advantages ,company is getting repeat orders from its customers. SKM’s  products are ultimately used by large food product manufacturing MNC’s  like Kraft foods .Heinz..etc. for manufacturing bakery , health care and food items.

                                                                           SKM  is the only listed producer of Egg Powder and other value added products from Eggs .Even from the unlisted space , only very few companies are manufacturing similar products in India which includes an unlisted private company named Venkateswara Food Products Pvt Ltd owned by the same promoters of Venky’s India and another Bangalore based  company which listed in BSE but suspended from trading for more than 13 years.Among these few players ,SKM is the market leader in Egg powder exports and contributing more than 50% of India’s total egg powder export.As of now, company processing about 18 lakhs eggs per day and utilising close to  90 % capacity to manufacture its major products Viz- Egg Powder ,Bakery Mix and Liquid Egg.These products are exporting to overseas markets mainly  Japan and EU countries.Out of 18 lakhs eggs , about 5 lakhs produced from  company owned farms and the remaining is sourcing through contract farming model( Mainly through an associate company  named SKM Universal Marketing Ltd) . In order to ensure the quality of Eggs , company itself supplying feeds manufactured by company controlled (leased)  feed mill  to the farmers and company appointed veterinary doctors and supervisors periodically visiting farms running under contract farming agreements.Earlier, during its tough times company's share holders approved the sale of feed mill and farm , but only the selling of feed mill executed ( now working on lease)  .This business model ensuring sourcing of quality eggs without interruption which is otherwise a herculean task to source close to 20 lakhs quality eggs per day.Promoter’s experience in poultry field is one important point to note. This company was originally promoted by Mr. SKM Maeilanandhan who is the doyen of poultry industry in India who also  honoured with the Padma Shri award for his outstanding contribution in the field of social work in 2013.

Having said , being a food product , export of these type products  to developed countries is not an easy task.Stringent quality standards and periodic quality  checking are usual in an industry like this before getting final approval for exports and usually these formalities take many years to complete.In the beginning, company faced many challenges in this front and it affected SKM’s past performance. From past troubled times company emerged as a winner under the able leadership of Mr. SKM Shree Shivkumar who is the MD of the company and son of Mr. SKM Maeilanandhan. 

FINANCIALS 

During the peak of recessionary period , it reported losses in FY 2011 and 2012 due to various reasons like lower demand, poor realization and most importantly some quality related issues due to its dependency on  outside quality testing laboratories. But with early signs of revival , company’s new products introduction and tapping new markets  ,SKM made a remarkable turnaround in FY 2013 and further improvement in latest FY 2014.(See the below table for details) . 

To avoid any quality related  issues in future , company  established own quality testing lab  and R&D facilities.
   

As per the thoughts shared during recent AGM , company is now paying top priority to become a debt free company ( excluding working capital debt) in near future. As part of this effort , company already reduced its debt from Rs.51 Cr to Rs.34 Cr in last FY  and further reduced it in  first six months of ongoing FY .( Half of the loans are taken from promoters itself which they pumped into the company to keep it afloat at the time of extremely difficult periods few years back.) It is targeting a debt free status in next two years . After achieving this target ,SKM is planning to hike its capacity to reach a Rs.500 Cr company by 2017-18.

Major Negatives

Company is an export oriented unit and any  recession severe than the previous one  may negatively impact the demand scenario of its products.

Company’s earnings is in Dollar and Euro and its movements against Indian Rupee may impact its margins.

Though company sourcing part of its Egg requirements from own farms , any adverse change in the price of feed ingredients may affect its raw material cost.

Un-expected diseases affecting birds may create problems.

Major Positives.

As I mentioned in many of my previous  postings ,while investing in small cap stocks , promoter quality is the first point to note.The most important positive point about this company is its promoters and management , not only because of their experience in this field but due to their highly ethical business practices and ‘Nothing to Hide’ mentality even towards its minority retail share holders.I believe ,In these matters , it is difficult to find many companies with this standard from the small caps space .

Potential of company's product is very high and, there is only very few companies in this field. SKM is the market leader handling more than 50% of India’s total egg powder exports.

India is one of the low cost producer of Eggs and this giving added  competitive advantages to the company . SKM captured Japanese market by competing even with American companies which indicating its high quality standards.

Entry barrier - As mentioned earlier , procuring 18 lakhs Eggs per day is not easy to replicate by any new entrant in this field. Company established own farms to source part of this requirement and planning to expand the capacity of farm when it add more production capacity in its factory.Contact farming is also designed in a systematic way where company ensuring the quality of feed and arranging periodic visit of veterinary  doctors to ensure the health of birds and provide awareness to farmers in order to ensure the quality of Eggs to be processed.Since the end consumers are large MNC food companies they ,always need large quantity at stringent quality standards . To ensure this quality standards ,it should be careful right from the beginning.Any available  egg can’t be processed but it can use only the eggs laid by birds fed with specially prepared diets , so special arrangements should be there to ensure this quality and any available eggs in the market or at the gate can’t be accepted.Sourcing close to 20 lakhs such eggs per day continuously is an extremely  difficult task.Situation is more tough in the selling side . By competing with foreign firms ,company took years to established the label of a reliable and quality supplier in overseas markets. Being a food ingredient ,import permission to developed countries is not easy and even in the case of Russian market ,SKM succeeded only recently after four years continuous efforts.Because of these reasons , still there is hardly four or five successful egg product processors existing in India. Full traceability of end product is an important factor in export oriented food stuff business. To ensure this ,SKM introduced a system named “TRACKKER” which helping the company  to trace from feed ingredients level to final product level.



   

Scope of company’s products is very vast and so far it not touched the biggest market –USA. This may happen once the production capacity hiked to double in next few years and company’s financial health improve further .

Using its own R&D , company introducing new products and its recently introduced liquid Eggs receiving  overwhelming response from customers. Considering the increasing cholesterol related health issues , liquid white egg may turned as a money spinner for SKM in the years to come. Company also succeeded in increasing the shelf life of products and this will help to penetrate more overseas markets.

During the time of  last recession its business badly affected mainly because of its higher concentration in few markets .To avoid such a situation in future SKM is now expanding its geographical presence .Company’s years long efforts to get an entry in Russian market succeeded recently and they got approval from Russia now. Company started trial shipment  and it is expected to become a priority market for SKM in future. Company also  entered in Nigeria and South African Markets recently.

Promoters efforts to become a debt free company is not a gimmick and they are working sincerely for that ,which is evident from the reduction in debt levels in recent times. Targeted debt free status by next few years will give direct positive impact in its bottom line and make this already attractive company as a compelling buy 

Another most important factor is the multi angle benefit to the company due to global recovery. From  last few year’s financial performance , it is evident that even a small  positive change in global economy augers well for SKM .It is helping the company in three different ways

·         * Increased Demand from foreign markets

·         * Being an Export Oriented Unit , appreciation of Dollar and Euro against Indian Rupee is positive for the company 

·         * Strengthening  of Dollar will reduce the competitiveness of US manufactures in foreign markets especially in Japan  where SKM’s major competitors are US manufactures.

There is no big local market for processed egg as of now. But history says , In case of India ,  imitating the trends of food habits from developed markets is an eventuality . This will happen in future for sure. In such a situation , the peer company with years experience will benefit a lot and it will help the company  to de-risk  its business model by reducing over dependence on export – if necessary – in future.

Cost control efforts taken by management and their attention even in minute factors is another important point if we look through the eyes of  a minority share holder. Usage of recycled waste water to irrigate the garden and lawn in front of the factory is an example for this zero wastage strategy. They are even selling egg shells and earning few thousands in each year.

Conclusion  

I believe SKM Egg Products Export is a company operating in an Industry with huge potential in future and at the same time with high entry barrier.Most important point is the management’s  high ethical standards they exhibited even during their tough times. I strongly believe , god will always with such people and lead them into more success . This is one rare company from the micro cap space I can assure one thing – if there is any  failure for this company in future ,it will be only because of a reason beyond the control of promoters and its management.That much is the efforts they are taking to bring back the company into the right direction and further growth.For FY 2013-14 , on a consolidated basis company reported a Sales of Rs.264 Cr , a net profit of 7.20 Cr and an EPS of Rs.2.76. Stock of SKM appreciated post declaration of full year result and currently trading around Rs.60 .Prima-facie on a P/E based valuation method , this is neither cheap nor expensive.But to get a fair picture about last year profit ,we should dig deep. This 7 .20 Crore profit arrived after providing an Exchange fluctuation loss  of Rs.7.36 Crore and another one time expense of Rs.4.15 Cr. Considering the chance for stability in Rupee value ( compared with last year)  less forex loss is a possibility in current year .In the case of the mentioned one time expense incurred in last year , there is no chance to repeat it again. If we consider these two important hidden factors,valuation picture will change positively. In addition to this , company’s debt reduction will directly impact its bottom line and EPS figures going forward.Along with this quantitative figures, SKM’s market leading position, robust business plans with introduction of new products and penetrating new markets supported by a highly ethical management which is taking every effort to reach a debt free   Rs.500 Cr company in next few years  makes its an attractive pick for long term investors even at current level.

 Listing

During its worse time in 2011-12 ,company sought share holders approval to de-list its stock from BSE and remain listed only in one exchange. In the 17th AGM of the company, share holders approved a special resolution for this purpose and hence at present SKM Egg Product Exports is trading only in NSE( De-listing procedures from BSE yet to completed and theoretically still it is listed in BSE but suspended from trading )  and currently trading around Rs.60

Link to Company Website HERE

Disc: It is safe to assume that, I have vested interest in it as a share holder.